Church Attendance Soars – The Automatic Earth, June 23, 2009
Imagine a reporter writes a story about a priest telling everyone who wants to hear it that attendance in his church has gone up enormously. . . The predictable headline reads: “Church attendance soars” . . . There is one detail of the story that escapes attention, though, amidst the happy feelings. It turns out that what the priest really told the reporter is that Sunday attendance was much higher than Saturday’s. And that little tidbit of course makes it a non-story, because church attendance is always higher on Sunday.
The way the reporter writes about the priest is exactly how the National Association of Realtors’ latest data were reported today, across the US and international media. All the headlines save a precious few read like this one from the Wall Street Journal: ”US Home Sales Rise Second Straight Month In May”. It seems like a normal headline. And it’s true, too. But there’s a problem with it, a big fat one. It’s only partly true. . . . Thing is, home sales in May are historically ALWAYS higher than in April. And there, of course, lies the link with the priest and his church attendance numbers, which are ALWAYS better on Sunday then on Saturday. In other words, the WSJ headline hides a non-story. But that doesn’t matter. The same message, in varying words, went out through dozens of media outlets this morning. And people feel a bit better, because they think home sales went up. They did not. That is to say, they went up from April to May, but they always do that.
The author hit the nail on the head. Yes, sale numbers are improved over April; however, this is not abnormal, different or a sign of economic recovery. When you compare sales in May 2008 to sales in May 2009 you get the true, honest picture of what is the current state of the housing market.
I cannot claim that home sales are ALWAYS higher in April than May because I only have 30 years of data showing that this is true in Metro Denver. I will be happy to share the data I have compiled privately, but not for publication.
Don Opeka – President
Licensed Colorado Mortgage Loan Originator MB100007878
Colorado Certified Mortgage Broker
Orion Mortgage, Inc.
10560 Wadsworth Blvd.
Broomfield, CO 80021
303-469-1254
800-404-0453
www.OrionMortgage.net
Don@OrionMortgageInc.com
Check the license status of any Colorado mortgage loan originator at http://eservices.psiexams.com/crec/search.jsp
‘Vanilla’ home loans could benefit borrowers – Washington (AP), June 22, 2009
WASHINGTON (AP) — If President Barack Obama gets his way, consumers who take out mortgages would automatically get a “plain vanilla” loan — such as a traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage — unless they opted for a riskier variety.
Obama’s plan to revamp financial regulation aims to protect borrowers from the confusing and high-risk mortgages that fed a pandemic of delinquencies and foreclosures, led to the worst financial crisis in decades and thrust the nation into a deep recession.
Critics in the mortgage industry are denouncing Obama’s plan for government-approved mortgages. Some call it a paternalistic intrusion that would restrict borrowers’ options and make loans harder to get and potentially more expensive.
With the government in charge of lending guidelines since taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008, let’s consider who is being approved and who is being declined now. The following are actual cases I have dealt with this month:
$195,000 loan on a $305,000 home declined. Borrower earned more than $6,000/month, had $100,000 in liquid reserves and 805 credit.
$50,000 loan on a $100,000 home declined. Borrower had debt ratios or 6% and 22%, $14,500 in liquid reserves, and 698 credit.
$210,000 loan on a $700,000 home declined. Borrower had $83,000 in income on tax return, $930,000 in liquid reserves, and 787 credit. Loan would have allowed borrower to avoid penalties on early IRA distributions. Government lending guidelines force borrower to pay more taxes and penalties.
$275,000 loan on a $355,000 home declined. Borrower had more than $1,000,000 of taxable income, $400,000 in liquid reserves, and 803 credit.
Automated system recommended approval and government guarantee of a $206,600 loan on a $200,000 home to a borrower with 32/44 debt ratio, $200 cash, and 676 credit.
Automated system recommended approval and government guarantee of a $211,765 loan on a $205,000 home to a borrower with 27/33 debt ratio, $3,000 cash, and 683 credit.
These are just a few of the files I’ve dealt with this month. They clearly show what the government considers high risk and low risk loans.
Don Opeka – President
Licensed Colorado Mortgage Loan Originator MB100007878
Colorado Certified Mortgage Broker
Orion Mortgage, Inc.
10560 Wadsworth Blvd.
Broomfield, CO 80021
303-469-1254
800-404-0453
www.OrionMortgage.net
Don@OrionMortgageInc.com
Check the license status of any Colorado mortgage loan originator at http://eservices.psiexams.com/crec/search.jsp
Rental fraud finds home online – The Denver Post, 06/15/09
“With the economy forcing an increasing number of people to rent homes, scams are proliferating online, particularly on Craigslist.com.
Real-estate brokers are seeing more of the homes they have listed for sale pop up as rentals on the online classified site. Potential renters are showing up at homes telling the owners they are responding to an ad on Craigslist. And in one instance, a couple moved into a home, unknown to its off-site owner, after responding to a fraudulent ad on Craigslist.”
This article was interesting in that it pointed out the hazards of real estate transactions on the internet. I think it would be a service to readers to point out some easy ways for an internet shopped to protect themselves from dealing with an “invisible-man”.
In this case, the shoppers were attempting to find a suitable rental. It seems they were dealing with a real estate agent. All real estate agents and mortgage originators who are licensed in Colorado are listed by name at http://eservices.psiexams.com/crec/search.jsp. If the person is an agent, they should be listed in this database. If they are not listed, it should be a red flag.
If they are renting a property from someone who claims to own it, many counties have an assessor’s database that is easy to access online. In Jefferson County, a prospective tenant can enter the property address at http://jeffco.us/assessor/index.htm and quickly determine the owner’s name and address. Similar information is available in other counties. If the information is not available online, it is easily checked at the assessor’s office.
If the prospective customer is dealing with any business, they can search the Secretary of State’s business database by name at http://www.sos.state.co.us/biz/BusinessEntityCriteriaExt.do. If the business is not listed, it would raise a red flag for me.
A Google search of the business phone number will quickly confirm the name and address of the phone listing. I would expect any business to have at least a main number listed even if an employee is using a cell phone. If the phone number is not listed, if there is only an unlisted cell phone, or if there is no address is Colorado, it would be a red flag to me. If there is an address listed, does it cross check with any of the above databases?
If a prospective customer wants more protection from an “invisible-man”, a public records name search is quick, easy and free in Jefferson County at https://landrecords.co.jefferson.co.us/. Similar searches are available either online or at the clerk and recorder’s office in all counties. The obvious search if I am involved in a real estate transaction would be to check and see if the person I am dealing with owns or has owned any real estate. Being involved in a real estate transaction with a person who has never owned any real estate would be like taking driving lessons from someone who has never driven a car.
The above are just some suggestions how an internet shopper can protect themselves.
Don Opeka – President
Licensed Colorado Mortgage Loan Originator MB100007878
Colorado Certified Mortgage Broker
Orion Mortgage, Inc.
10560 Wadsworth Blvd.
Broomfield, CO 80021
303-469-1254
800-404-0453
www.OrionMortgage.net
Don@OrionMortgageInc.com
Check the license status of any Colorado mortgage loan originator at http://eservices.psiexams.com/crec/search.jsp
This is where we post segments of recent news concerning the mortgage industry and our comments. Feel free to check out the linked articles, review our comments and make some of your own.
