Church Attendance Soars . . .

Church Attendance Soars – The Automatic Earth, June 23, 2009

Imagine a reporter writes a story about a priest telling everyone who wants to hear it that attendance in his church has gone up enormously. . . The predictable headline reads: “Church attendance soars” . . . There is one detail of the story that escapes attention, though, amidst the happy feelings. It turns out that what the priest really told the reporter is that Sunday attendance was much higher than Saturday’s. And that little tidbit of course makes it a non-story, because church attendance is always higher on Sunday.

The way the reporter writes about the priest is exactly how the National Association of Realtors’ latest data were reported today, across the US and international media. All the headlines save a precious few read like this one from the Wall Street Journal: ”US Home Sales Rise Second Straight Month In May”. It seems like a normal headline. And it’s true, too. But there’s a problem with it, a big fat one. It’s only partly true. . . . Thing is, home sales in May are historically ALWAYS higher than in April. And there, of course, lies the link with the priest and his church attendance numbers, which are ALWAYS better on Sunday then on Saturday. In other words, the WSJ headline hides a non-story. But that doesn’t matter. The same message, in varying words, went out through dozens of media outlets this morning. And people feel a bit better, because they think home sales went up. They did not. That is to say, they went up from April to May, but they always do that.

The author hit the nail on the head.  Yes, sale numbers are improved over April; however, this is not abnormal, different or a sign of economic recovery.  When you compare sales in May 2008 to sales in May 2009 you get the true, honest picture of what is the current state of the housing market.

I cannot claim that home sales are ALWAYS higher in April than May because I only have 30 years of data showing that this is true in Metro Denver. I will be happy to share the data I have compiled privately, but not for publication.

Don Opeka – President
Licensed Colorado Mortgage Loan Originator MB100007878
Colorado Certified Mortgage Broker

Orion Mortgage, Inc.
10560 Wadsworth Blvd.
Broomfield, CO 80021
303-469-1254
800-404-0453
www.OrionMortgage.net
Don@OrionMortgageInc.com

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